标题： 增长的交换：新兴市场的货币动态 显示英文标题

标题： Exchange for Growth: Currency Dynamics in Emerging Markets

摘要： 货币危机经常被回顾性地讨论为一系列有限的财政决策、货币政策和有限的外生输入的必然且确定的结果。 同时，双赤字假说（TDH）认为，预算赤字的增加会直接导致经常账户赤字的上升；尽管这与货币危机作为有限输入结果的想法类似（在这里通过国际收支危机体现），但这一观点与独立干预可能影响货币危机表现的结论相矛盾。 自1960年Mundell和Fleming提出以来，TDH引发了关于其有效性的大量学术争论。 鉴于其假设私人储蓄缺口稳定，以及相互矛盾的实证证据，我们认为，通过结合当代货币经济学的理论框架，采用更细致的方法可以得出新的见解，以调和对TDH的批评与其广泛适用性的基础。 因此，本文的结果研究了实际经济因素与财政政策自主性的关系，从而评估政府在不损害贸易政策自主性和经常账户可持续性的情况下实现国内政策目标的能力。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Currency crises are frequently discussed retrospectively as a necessary and deterministic outcome of a finite sequence of fiscal decisions, monetary manoeuvres, and limited exogenous inputs. Parallelly, the Twin Deficits Hypothesis (TDH) posits that an increase in the budget deficit leads to a direct rise in the current account deficit; although analogous to the idea of currency crises being the outcome of finite inputs (through a balance of payments crisis here), this notion runs contrary to the conclusion that independent intervention can have bearing on the expression of a currency crisis. Since its introduction by Mundell and Fleming in 1960, the TDH has sparked considerable academic debate regarding its validity. Given its assumption of a stable private savings gap, and conflicting empirical evidence, we believe there are novel insights to be gained from a more nuanced approach incorporating theoretical frameworks from contemporary Monetary Economics in order to reconcile criticisms of the TDH with the basis for its broad applicability. The results from this paper thus investigate the link - or lack thereof - between real economic factors, which can support the assessment of fiscal policy autonomy, and thereby a government's ability, to meet domestic policy objectives without compromising trade policy autonomy and current account sustainability.