标题： 一种统计太阳耀斑预报方法 显示英文标题

标题： A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method

摘要： 一种用于太阳耀斑预测的贝叶斯方法已经开发出来，该方法仅使用已观测到的耀斑事件统计信息。 这种方法简单、客观，并且假设较少。 有人认为，这种做法应该被用来为某些空间天气目的提供基准预测，在此基础上，其他结合更多信息的方法可以进一步改进。 描述了该方法在地球静止观测环境卫星（GOES）事件全太阳预测中的实际应用，并以2003年11月4日（记录中最大的GOES耀斑发生的那一天）为例进行了演示。 基于GOES事件的历史记录（1975-2003），描述了对该方法的测试，并与美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）1987-2003年的预测进行了详细比较。 尽管NOAA的预报纳入了多种其他信息，但本方法在预测M-X级和X级事件的日均数量方面优于NOAA方法。 技能评分和其他指标表明，本方法在预测M-X级事件时略逊于NOAA方法，但在预测对空间天气有重要影响的X级事件时，准确性显著更高。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A practical implementation of the method for whole-Sun prediction of Geostationary Observational Environment Satellite (GOES) events is described in detail, and is demonstrated for 4 November 2003, the day of the largest recorded GOES flare. A test of the method is described based on the historical record of GOES events (1975-2003), and a detailed comparison is made with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions for 1987-2003. Although the NOAA forecasts incorporate a variety of other information, the present method out-performs the NOAA method in predicting mean numbers of event days, for both M-X and X events. Skill scores and other measures show that the present method is slightly less accurate at predicting M-X events than the NOAA method, but substantially more accurate at predicting X events, which are important contributors to space weather.