标题： 过早的悲观情绪？ 显示英文标题

标题： Too Soon for Doom Gloom?

摘要： 我们是前10^{11}个左右人类之一的观察结果，根据Carter、Leslie、Nielsen和Gott的论点，这降低了我们发现自己处于总个体数量远高于我们的物种中的先验概率。 然而，如果我们从一个先验概率出发，即一种历史的总个体数量非常大，而不假设我们处于这样的历史中，那么这种更基本的概率不会因为我们在历史中存在得较早而被降低。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The observation that we are among the first 10^{11} or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.