标题： 拉普拉斯-杰尼斯归纳法 显示英文标题

标题： The Laplace-Jaynes approach to induction

摘要： 提出了一种归纳方法，基于将给定问题的上下文分析为“情况”的思想。 这种方法在形式和意义上完全贝叶斯，为基于德菲内蒂表示定理和无限可交换性概念的方法提供了一种补充，或者在某些情况下是一种替代方法。 特别是，它为那些表面上涉及“未知概率”或“倾向性”的公式提供了另一种解释。 讨论了所提出方法的各种优点和应用，特别是在与基于可交换性的方法进行比较时。 还讨论了推广的情况。 显示英文摘要

摘要： An approach to induction is presented, based on the idea of analysing the context of a given problem into `circumstances'. This approach, fully Bayesian in form and meaning, provides a complement or in some cases an alternative to that based on de Finetti's representation theorem and on the notion of infinite exchangeability. In particular, it gives an alternative interpretation of those formulae that apparently involve `unknown probabilities' or `propensities'. Various advantages and applications of the presented approach are discussed, especially in comparison to that based on exchangeability. Generalisations are also discussed.