Title: Affordable, Rapid Bootstrapping of the Space Industry and Solar System Civilization Show Chinese title

Title: 低成本快速启动太空产业和太阳系文明

Abstract: Advances in robotics and additive manufacturing have become game-changing for the prospects of space industry. It has become feasible to bootstrap a self-sustaining, self-expanding industry at reasonably low cost. Simple modeling was developed to identify the main parameters of successful bootstrapping. This indicates that bootstrapping can be achieved with as little as 12 metric tons (MT) landed on the Moon during a period of about 20 years. The equipment will be teleoperated and then transitioned to full autonomy so the industry can spread to the asteroid belt and beyond. The strategy begins with a sub-replicating system and evolves it toward full self-sustainability (full closure) via an in situ technology spiral. The industry grows exponentially due to the free real estate, energy, and material resources of space. The mass of industrial assets at the end of bootstrapping will be 156 MT with 60 humanoid robots, or as high as 40,000 MT with as many as 100,000 humanoid robots if faster manufacturing is supported by launching a total of 41 MT to the Moon. Within another few decades with no further investment, it can have millions of times the industrial capacity of the United States. Modeling over wide parameter ranges indicates this is reasonable, but further analysis is needed. This industry promises to revolutionize the human condition. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 机器人技术和增材制造的进步已成为太空产业前景的关键转折点。现在已经有可能以相对较低的成本启动一个自我维持、自我扩展的产业。开发了简单的建模来确定成功启动的主要参数。这表明，通过大约20年内向月球运送12公吨（MT），就可以实现启动。 设备将被远程操作，然后过渡到完全自主，从而使该产业能够扩展到小行星带甚至更远的地方。该策略从一个非复制系统开始，并通过现场技术螺旋发展演变为完全的自给自足（完全闭合）。 由于空间中自由的土地、能源和物质资源，该产业将呈指数增长。在启动结束时，工业资产的总质量将达到156公吨，包括60个人形机器人，或者如果支持更快的制造，通过向月球发射总计41公吨，最多可达到40,000公吨，伴随最多达100,000个人形机器人。 在没有进一步投资的情况下，再经过几十年的时间，它的工业能力可以比美国高出数百万倍。广泛的参数范围建模表明这是合理的，但还需要进一步分析。 这一产业有望彻底改变人类的生存状况。