Title: OSSOS: X. How to use a Survey Simulator: Statistical Testing of Dynamical Models Against the Real Kuiper Belt Show Chinese title

Title: OSSOS: X. 如何使用调查模拟器：对动力学模型进行统计测试以应对真实的柯伊伯带

Abstract: All surveys include observational biases, which makes it impossible to directly compare properties of discovered trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) with dynamical models. However, by carefully keeping track of survey pointings on the sky, detection limits, tracking fractions, and rate cuts, the biases from a survey can be modelled in Survey Simulator software. A Survey Simulator takes an intrinsic orbital model (from, for example, the output of a dynamical Kuiper belt emplacement simulation) and applies the survey biases, so that the biased simulated objects can be directly compared with real discoveries. This methodology has been used with great success in the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) and its predecessor surveys. In this chapter, we give four examples of ways to use the OSSOS Survey Simulator to gain knowledge about the true structure of the Kuiper Belt. We demonstrate how to statistically compare different dynamical model outputs with real TNO discoveries, how to quantify detection biases within a TNO population, how to measure intrinsic population sizes, and how to use upper limits from non-detections. We hope this will provide a framework for dynamical modellers to statistically test the validity of their models. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 所有调查都包含观测偏差，这使得无法直接将发现的海王星外天体（TNO）的特性与动力学模型进行比较。 然而，通过仔细跟踪调查在天空中的指向、检测极限、跟踪比例和速率切割，可以将调查的偏差建模到调查模拟器软件中。 调查模拟器接收一个内在轨道模型（例如，动力学柯伊伯带安置模拟的输出），并应用调查偏差，从而使有偏差的模拟天体可以直接与真实发现进行比较。 这种方法已在外部太阳系起源调查（OSSOS）及其前身调查中取得了巨大成功。 在本章中，我们给出四个使用OSSOS调查模拟器来了解柯伊伯带真实结构的方法示例。 我们演示了如何统计比较不同的动力学模型输出与真实的TNO发现，如何量化TNO种群内的检测偏差，如何测量内在种群大小，以及如何利用未检测到的上限。 我们希望这能为动力学建模者提供一个统计测试其模型有效性的框架。