Title: Effect of time-dependent infectiousness on epidemic dynamics Show Chinese title

Title: 时间依赖性传染性对流行病动力学的影响

Abstract: In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive numbers and epidemic dynamics for a model incorporating time-dependent infectiousness and a standard SIR model for both fully-mixed and category-mixed populations. We find that the reproductive number only depends on the total infectious exposure and the largest eigenvalue of the mixing matrix and that these two effects are independent of each other. When we compare our time-dependent mean-field model to the SIR model with equivalent rates, the epidemic peak is advanced and modifying the infection rate function has a strong effect on the time dynamics of the epidemic. We also observe behavior akin to a traveling wave as individuals transition through infectious states. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 与流行病模型中常见的感染率恒定的假设相反，实际上，个体的病毒载量决定了他们的传染性。 我们比较了包含时间依赖传染性的模型与标准SIR模型在完全混合和类别混合人群中的平均和个体繁殖数以及流行病动态。 我们发现，繁殖数仅取决于总传染暴露和混合矩阵的最大特征值，并且这两个效应彼此独立。 当我们把我们的时间依赖平均场模型与具有等效速率的SIR模型进行比较时，流行病峰值提前了，修改感染率函数对流行病的时间动态有显著影响。 我们还观察到类似于行进波的行为，随着个体在传染状态之间转换。