Title: Portuguese Households Savings in Times of Pandemic: A Way to Better Resist the Escalating Inflation? Show Chinese title

Title: 疫情期间葡萄牙家庭储蓄：一种更好地抵御不断上升的通货膨胀的方式？

Abstract: March 2020 confinement has shot Portuguese savings to historic levels, reaching 13.4% of gross disposable income in early 2021 (INE, 2023). To find similar savings figures we need to go back to 1999. With consumption reduced to a bare minimum, the Portuguese were forced to save. Households reduced spending more because of a lack of alternatives to consumption than for any other reason. The relationship between consumption, savings, and income has occupied an important role in economic thought [(Keynes, 1936; 1937); (Friedman, 1957)]. Traditionally, high levels of savings have been associated with benefits to the economy, since financing capacity is enhanced (Singh, 2010). However, the effects here can be twofold. On the one hand, it seems that Portugal faced the so-called Savings Paradox (Keynes, 1936). If consumers decide to save a considerable part of their income, there will be less demand for the goods produced. Lower demand will lead to lower supply, production, income, and, paradoxically, fewer savings. On the other hand, after having accumulated savings at the peak of the pandemic, the Portuguese are now using them to carry out postponed consumption and, hopefully, to better resist the escalating inflation. This study aims to examine Portuguese households' savings evolution during the most critical period of the pandemic, between March 2020 and April 2022. The methodology analyses the correlation between savings, consumption, and GDP as well as GDP's decomposition into its various components and concluded that these suddenly forced savings do not fit traditional economic theories of savings. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 2020年3月的封锁使葡萄牙的储蓄达到历史最高水平，到2021年初，储蓄占可支配总收入的13.4%（INE，2023）。 要找到类似的储蓄数据，我们需要回溯到1999年。 由于消费被削减到最低限度，葡萄牙人被迫储蓄。 家庭减少支出更多是由于缺乏消费的替代选择，而不是其他任何原因。 消费、储蓄和收入之间的关系在经济思想中占据重要地位[(Keynes, 1936; 1937); (Friedman, 1957)]。 传统上，高储蓄水平被认为对经济有益，因为融资能力得到增强（Singh，2010）。 然而，这里的影响可能是双重的。 一方面，似乎葡萄牙面临所谓的储蓄悖论（Keynes，1936）。 如果消费者决定将收入的相当一部分储蓄起来，那么对所生产商品的需求将会减少。 需求减少将导致供应减少、生产减少、收入减少，而且矛盾的是，储蓄也会减少。 另一方面，在疫情期间达到顶峰积累储蓄后，葡萄牙人现在正在使用这些储蓄进行推迟的消费，并希望更好地抵御不断上升的通货膨胀。 本研究旨在考察葡萄牙家庭在疫情最严重时期，即2020年3月至2022年4月期间的储蓄演变情况。 该方法分析了储蓄、消费和GDP之间的相关性，以及GDP各个组成部分的分解，并得出结论认为这些突然被迫的储蓄不符合传统的储蓄经济理论。