Title: Assessing Dengue Risk Globally Using Non-Markovian Models Show Chinese title

Title: 使用非马尔可夫模型全球评估登革热风险

Abstract: Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we advance existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately accounts for the non-Markovian nature of the process. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to reduce the model to the corresponding differential equations, enabling us to utilize existing methods for analyzing the system and fitting the model to observations. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 登革热是一种通过伊蚊传播的媒介疾病。 这些蚊子的全球传播和疾病负担的增加强调了需要一种能够评估登革热爆发状况并量化爆发风险的时空风险图。 鉴于伊蚊的生活周期受到栖息地温度的强烈影响，许多研究已经利用这些蚊子的温度依赖性发育速率来构建病毒传播和爆发风险模型。 在本研究中，我们通过开发一个能够准确考虑该过程非马尔可夫性质的蚊子生活周期机制模型，推进了现有研究。 通过将模型拟合到人类登革热病例的数据，我们估计了几个模型参数，从而开发了一个全球时空登革热风险图。 该风险模型使用温度和降水数据来评估给定区域的登革热爆发环境适宜性。 此外，我们展示了如何将模型简化为相应的微分方程，使我们能够利用现有的方法对系统进行分析并将模型与观测数据进行拟合。 这种方法可以进一步应用于目前用较不准确的马尔可夫模型描述的类似非马尔可夫过程。