Title: Dynamical Measurement of Supermassive Black Hole Masses: QPE Timing Method Show Chinese title

Title: 超大质量黑洞质量的动力学测量：QPE定时方法

Abstract: Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are intense repeating soft X-ray bursts with recurrence times about a few hours to a few weeks from galactic nuclei. More and more analyses show that (at least a fraction of) QPEs are the result of collisions between a stellar mass object (SMO, a stellar mass black hole or a main sequence star) and an accretion disk around a supermassive black hole (SMBH) in galactic nuclei. Previous studies have shown the possibility of reconstructing the SMO trajectory from QPE timing data, consequently measuring the SMBH mass from tracing a single SMO. In this paper, we construct a comprehensive Bayesian framework for implementing the QPE timing method, explore the optimal QPE observation strategy for measuring SMBH masses, and forecast the measurement precision expected in the era of multi-target X-ray telescope, Chasing All Transients Constellation Hunters (CATCH). Simulations of CATCH observations of GSN 069 and eRO-QPE2 like QPEs confirm the possible applications of the QPE timing method in precise measurement of SMBH masses (and spins), especially in the lower mass end ($\lesssim 10^7 M_\odot$) where QPEs prevail and relevant dynamical timescales are reasonably short to be measured. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 准周期性喷发（QPEs）是从星系核心重复出现的强烈软X射线爆发，其重复时间约为几小时到几周。 越来越多的分析表明（至少部分QPEs）是由于星质量天体（SMO，一个星质量黑洞或主序星）与星系核心中超大质量黑洞（SMBH）周围的吸积盘发生碰撞的结果。 先前的研究表明，可以从QPE的时间数据中重建SMO的轨迹，从而通过追踪单个SMO测量SMBH的质量。 在本文中，我们构建了一个综合的贝叶斯框架来实现QPE时间方法，探讨了用于测量SMBH质量的最佳QPE观测策略，并预测了在多目标X射线望远镜时代，追逐所有瞬变星座猎人（CATCH）中的预期测量精度。 对GSN 069和eRO-QPE2类似QPE的CATCH观测模拟证实了QPE时间方法在精确测量SMBH质量（和自旋）中的可能应用，特别是在QPE普遍存在的低质量端（$\lesssim 10^7 M_\odot$），其中相关的动力学时标相对较短，可以被测量。