Title: On Optimality and Human Prediction of Event Duration in Real-Time, Real-World Contexts Show Chinese title

Title: 关于实时真实情境中事件持续时间的最优性与人类预测

Abstract: The focus of the current work concerned the psychological processes that underlie prediction of an events duration. The objective was to push forward existing psychological theory on event duration prediction, something made possible by the unique features of our data context. The provisional findings suggested that the prior, existing theoretical mechanism of event duration prediction is incomplete because: i. it does not support adaptive responses when event duration judgments are dependent, ii. it does not afford the integration of new, on the fly, information. Our findings suggest specific directions for future research. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 当前工作的重点是影响事件持续时间预测的心理过程。 目标是推动现有关于事件持续时间预测的心理理论，这得益于我们数据背景的独特特性。 初步结果表明，现有的事件持续时间预测理论机制是不完整的，因为：i. 当事件持续时间判断是依赖的时候，它不支持适应性反应，ii. 它无法实现新的实时信息的整合。 我们的研究结果为未来的研究指明了具体方向。