Title: Tenure Under Pressure: Simulating the Disruptive Effects of AI on Academic Publishing Show Chinese title

Title: 在压力下的任期：模拟人工智能对学术出版的破坏性影响

Abstract: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has begun to reshape academic publishing by enabling the rapid production of submission-ready manuscripts. While such tools promise to enhance productivity, they also raise concerns about overwhelming journal systems that have fixed acceptance capacities. This paper uses simulation modeling to investigate how AI-driven surges in submissions may affect desk rejection rates, review cycles, and faculty publication portfolios, with a focus on business school journals and tenure processes. Three scenarios are analyzed: a baseline model, an Early Adopter model where a subset of faculty boosts productivity, and an AI Abuse model where submissions rise exponentially. Results indicate that early adopters initially benefit, but overall acceptance rates fall sharply as load increases, with tenure-track faculty facing disproportionately negative outcomes. The study contributes by demonstrating the structural vulnerabilities of the current publication system and highlights the need for institutional reform in personnel evaluation and research dissemination practices. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 生成式人工智能（AI）已经开始重塑学术出版，使其能够快速生成符合提交要求的稿件。 尽管这些工具有望提高生产力，但也引发了对期刊系统承受能力的担忧，因为期刊的接受容量是固定的。 本文使用模拟建模来研究AI驱动的投稿激增可能如何影响初审拒绝率、评审周期和教职员工的出版组合，重点研究商学院期刊和终身教职流程。 分析了三种情景：基准模型、早期采用者模型（部分教职员工提高生产力）以及AI滥用模型（投稿量呈指数增长）。 结果表明，早期采用者最初受益，但随着工作量增加，整体接受率急剧下降，而准终身教职的教职员工面临不成比例的负面影响。 本研究通过展示当前出版系统的结构性脆弱性，做出了贡献，并强调了在人员评估和研究传播实践方面进行制度性改革的必要性。