Title: A data-driven global ocean forecasting model with sub-daily and eddy-resolving resolution Show Chinese title

Title: 具有亚日和涡旋分辨分辨率的数据驱动全球海洋预测模型

Abstract: High-fidelity ocean forecasting at high spatial and temporal resolution is essential for capturing fine-scale dynamical features, with profound implications for hazard prediction, maritime navigation, and sustainable ocean management. While conventional numerical models can generate sub-daily, eddy-resolving forecasts, they demand substantial computational resources and often struggle to maintain predictive skill at such fine scales. Data-driven models offer a promising alternative with significantly higher computational efficiency; however, most are constrained to daily outputs and show a rapid decay in accuracy when extended to sub-daily timescales. Here, we introduce TianHai, the first-of-its-kind global data-driven 6-hour forecasting model, which delivers predictions at 1/12{\deg} eddy-resolving resolution with a vertical extent down to 1,500 m. A key feature of TianHai is the integration of atmospheric forcings through FuXi-Atmosphere, a data-driven atmospheric forecasting system, which enables the explicit representation of air-sea coupling effects. Unlike conventional approaches, TianHai does not rely on numerical atmospheric models or external meteorological forecasts, making it a fully data-driven framework for coupled prediction. Benchmark experiments demonstrate that TianHai delivers state-of-the-art performance in forecasting temperature and salinity profiles, zonal and meridional currents, sea surface temperature, and sea level anomalies for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 高精度的海洋预报在高空间和时间分辨率下对于捕捉细尺度动力特征至关重要，对灾害预测、航海和可持续海洋管理具有深远的意义。 虽然传统数值模型可以生成次日、涡旋解析的预报，但它们需要大量的计算资源，并且在如此精细的尺度上往往难以保持预测技能。 数据驱动模型提供了一个有前景的替代方案，具有显著更高的计算效率；然而，大多数模型仅限于每日输出，并且在扩展到次日时间尺度时准确性迅速下降。 在此，我们介绍了天海，首个全球数据驱动的6小时预报模型，它以1/12{\deg }涡旋解析分辨率进行预测，垂直范围达到1500米。天海的一个关键特点是通过FuXi-Atmosphere数据驱动的大气预报系统整合大气强迫，这使得能够明确表示气-海耦合效应。 与传统方法不同，天海不依赖数值大气模型或外部气象预报，使其成为一种完全数据驱动的耦合预测框架。 基准实验表明，天海在1至10天的预报时效范围内，在温度和盐度剖面、纬向和经向洋流、海表温度和海平面异常的预报方面表现出最先进的性能。