Title: Trade, Political Distance and the World Trade Organization Show Chinese title

Title: 贸易、政治距离与世界贸易组织

Abstract: Trade agreements are often understood as shielding commerce from fluctuations in political relations. This paper provides evidence that World Trade Organization membership reduces the penalty of political distance on trade at the extensive margin. Using a structural gravity framework covering 1948 to 2023 and two measures of political distance, based on high-frequency events data and UN General Assembly votes, GATT/WTO status is consistently associated with a wider range of products traded between politically distant partners. The association is strongest in the early WTO years (1995 to 2008). Events-based estimates also suggest attenuation at the intensive margin, while UN vote-based estimates do not. Across all specifications, GATT/WTO membership increases aggregate trade volumes. The results indicate that a function of the multilateral trading system has been to foster new trade links across political divides, while raising trade volumes among both close and distant partners. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 贸易协定通常被理解为使商业免受政治关系波动的影响。 本文提供了证据，表明世界贸易组织成员身份在广度边际上减少了政治距离对贸易的惩罚。 使用涵盖1948年至2023年的结构重力框架以及基于高频事件数据和联合国大会投票的两种政治距离衡量指标，GATT/WTO地位与政治距离伙伴之间交易产品范围的扩大始终相关。 这种关联在早期的世贸组织时期（1995年至2008年）最为显著。 基于事件的估计还表明在深度边际上有所减弱，而基于联合国投票的估计则没有。 在所有规格中，GATT/WTO成员身份都增加了总贸易量。 结果表明，多边贸易体系的一个功能是在政治分歧之间促进新的贸易联系，同时提高密切和遥远伙伴之间的贸易量。