标题： 传染病在修改的SEIRS模型中的传播 显示英文标题

标题： Infectious Disease Transmission In A Modified SEIRS model

摘要： 如易感-感染-恢复(SIR)\cite{Kermack1927}及其扩展模型如易感-潜伏-感染-恢复(SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021}这样的分 compartment 模型常用于模拟传染病的传播。我们在这里提出一种修改后的 SEIRS，即 SEIRSD 模型，该模型包括：(i) 从潜伏到易感 compartment 的反向传播，以考虑自然中疾病传播的概率特性，以及 (ii) 除了其他原因导致的死亡外，还包括由感染引起的死亡。我们观察到，从潜伏类到易感类的反向流动对感染峰值的高度及其发生时间有显著影响。鉴于最近新冠变异株的激增，这项研究最为相关。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model the spread of infectious diseases. We propose here, a modified SEIRS, namely, an SEIRSD model which comprises of (i) a reverse transmission from exposed to susceptible compartment to account for the probabilistic character of disease transmission seen in nature, and (ii) inclusion of mortality caused by infection in addition to death by other causes. We observed that, a reverse flow from exposed to susceptible class, has a significant impact on the height of infection peaks and their time of occurrence. In view of the recent surges of Covid-19 variants, this study is most relevant.