标题： 生物停滞技术进步的从业者预测 显示英文标题

标题： Practitioner forecasts of technological progress in biostasis

摘要： 生物停滞有可能通过提供通往未来可能开发的强大生命延长技术的桥梁来延长人类寿命。 然而，该领域仍存在一些关键问题尚未解决，包括哪些生物标志物可以可靠地指示成功的保存，哪些技术障碍构成最大的障碍，以及不同的提议复苏方法在理论上是否可行。 为了解决这些差距，我们与22位生物停滞从业者进行了协作预测练习，其中包括神经科学、低温生物学和临床护理方面的专家。 我们的结果表明，在某些领域存在显著共识，例如突触连接可以作为信息保存质量的可靠替代生物标志物。 从业者确定了当代生物停滞中最可能的三种失败模式：即使在理想条件下，保存质量也不足，地理障碍阻止及时保存，以及操作执行不佳。 关于复苏策略，大多数受访者认为整个哺乳动物生物的可证明可逆冷冻保存可能需要数十年才能实现，而可证明可逆的人类冷冻保存则可能更晚实现，如果能够实现的话。 在从当代保存方法中提出的复苏策略中，全脑模拟被认为最有可能首先被开发，尽管受访者在哲学问题上意见不一，即它是否能构成真正的复苏。 分子纳米技术被认为在技术上几乎同样可行，并且与纯冷冻保存和醛基方法兼容。 总的来说，这些发现明确了高质量保存的当前障碍，确定了未来研究的重点，并提供了关键不确定领域的基准估计。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Biostasis has the potential to extend human lives by offering a bridge to powerful life extension technologies that may be developed in the future. However, key questions in the field remain unresolved, including which biomarkers reliably indicate successful preservation, what technical obstacles pose the greatest barriers, and whether different proposed revival methods are theoretically feasible. To address these gaps, we conducted a collaborative forecasting exercise with 22 practitioners in biostasis, including individuals with expertise in neuroscience, cryobiology, and clinical care. Our results reveal substantial consensus in some areas, for example that synaptic connectivity can serve as a reliable surrogate biomarker for information preservation quality. Practitioners identified three most likely failure modes in contemporary biostasis: inadequate preservation quality even under ideal conditions, geographic barriers preventing timely preservation, and poor procedural execution. Regarding revival strategies, most respondents believe that provably reversible cryopreservation of whole mammalian organisms is most likely decades away, with provably reversible human cryopreservation expected even later, if it is ever achieved. Among revival strategies from contemporary preservation methods, whole brain emulation was considered the most likely to be developed first, though respondents were divided on the metaphysical question of whether it could constitute genuine revival. Molecular nanotechnology was viewed as nearly as likely to be technically feasible, and compatible with both pure cryopreservation and aldehyde-based methods. Taken together, these findings delineate current barriers to high-quality preservation, identify future research priorities, and provide baseline estimates for key areas of uncertainty.