标题： 具有多个感染阶段的流行病在度异质和聚类网络上的紧致成对模型 显示英文标题

标题： Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks

摘要： 本文提出了一种紧凑的成对模型，用于描述网络上多阶段流行病的传播。 多阶段模型对应于伽马分布的传染期，该传染期在具有指数分布传染期的经典马尔可夫模型和具有恒定传染期的流行病之间进行插值。 我们展示了紧凑方法如何导致一个方程组，其大小与节点度数范围无关，从而显著降低了模型的复杂性。 将网络聚类纳入模型中，以提供对现实接触网络更准确的表示，并分析了不同聚类水平和感染阶段数量下所提出的闭合方法的准确性。 我们的结果支持最近的发现，即当传染期恒定时，标准闭合技术可能表现更好。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period. We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equations whose size is independent of the range of node degrees, thus significantly reducing the complexity of the model. Network clustering is incorporated into the model to provide a more accurate representation of realistic contact networks, and the accuracy of proposed closures is analysed for different levels of clustering and number of infection stages. Our results support recent findings that standard closure techniques are likely to perform better when the infectious period is constant.