标题： 带有不完全母体传播和Wolbachia感染丢失的Wolbachia入侵模型的数学分析 显示英文标题

标题： Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

摘要： 蚊媒病毒感染，尤其是登革热，在其流行地区继续造成严重的健康负担。 应对这些感染的一种策略是将主要传播媒介埃及伊蚊替换为无法传播病毒的个体。 沃尔巴克氏体是一种细胞内细菌，已显示出实现这一目标的潜力。 然而，一些关键因素，如不完全的母体传播、沃尔巴克氏体感染的丧失、繁殖能力的降低和寿命缩短，会影响沃尔巴克氏体在埃及伊蚊种群中不同形式的动力学。 在本研究中，我们开发了一个考虑不完全母体传播和沃尔巴克氏体感染丧失的沃尔巴克氏体传播动态模型。 推导出决定沃尔巴克氏体未感染（WU）种群替代可能性的入侵繁殖数，并据此建立了平衡点的局部和全局稳定性。 该分析清楚地表明，细胞质不相容性（CI）并不能保证沃尔巴克氏体感染（WI）蚊子的建立，因为不完全的母体传播和沃尔巴克氏体感染的丧失可能超过CI带来的优势。 展示了依赖于不完全母体传播和沃尔巴克氏体感染丧失水平的最佳释放方案。 因此，决策者需要决定是追求替代还是两种种群的共存。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae. aegypti, with the ones incapable of transmitting the virus. Wolbachia, an intracellular bacterium, has shown promise in achieving this goal. However, key factors such as imperfect maternal transmission, loss of Wolbachia infection, reduced reproductive capacity and shortened life-span affect the dynamics of Wolbachia in different forms in the Ae. aegypti population. In this study, we developed a Wolbachia transmission dynamic model adjusting for imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection. The invasive reproductive number that determines the likelihood of replacement of the Wolbachia-uninfected (WU) population is derived and with it, we established the local and global stability of the equilibrium points. This analysis clearly shows that cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) does not guarantee establishment of the Wolbachia-infected (WI) mosquitoes as imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection could outweigh the gains from CI. Optimal release programs depending on the level of imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection are shown. Hence, it is left to decision makers to either aim for replacement or co-existence of both populations.