标题： 一个具有暂时交叉免疫的基本多菌株流行病学模型中的新混沌吸引子 显示英文标题

标题： A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity

摘要： 具有暂时交叉免疫的流行病多菌株模型在之前意想不到的参数区域中表现出混沌。 特别是针对登革热的模型，在二次感染时具有强增强传染性的模型之前已显示出由抗体依赖性增强（ADE）实验结果所引发的确定性混沌。 包括这种暂时交叉免疫在内的模型，这是登革热领域研究人员的常识，我们发现在二次感染传染性降低的更现实参数区域（“反ADE”参数区域）中存在确定性混沌吸引子。 这对于登革热来说是合理的，因为在第二次感染时，人们更可能被住院，因此不像第一次感染的人那样对感染力做出贡献。 我们的发现不仅限于登革热，在任何二次感染时传染性发生变化的多菌株流行病系统中都有更广泛的意义，因为我们可以放松之前对于二次感染时较高传染性以产生确定性混沌的条件。 对于登革热来说，广泛范围的混沌吸引子的发现为现有数据集的分析开辟了新的途径。 显示英文摘要

摘要： An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown deterministic chaos motivated by experimental findings of antibody-dependent-enhancement (ADE). Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which is common knowledge among field researchers in dengue, we find a deterministically chaotic attractor in the more realistic parameter region of reduced infectivity on secondary infection (''inverse ADE'' parameter region). This is realistic for dengue fever since on second infection people are more likely to be hospitalized, hence do not contribute to the force of infection as much as people with first infection. Our finding has wider implications beyond dengue in any multi-strain epidemiological systems with altered infectivity upon secondary infection, since we can relax the condition of rather high infectivity on secondary infection previously required for deterministic chaos. For dengue the finding of wide ranges of chaotic attractors open new ways to analysis of existing data sets.