标题： 基于重采样的检测人传人传染病传播的检验方法 显示英文标题

标题： A resampling-based test to detect person-to-person transmission of infectious disease

摘要： 早期发现人与人之间传播的新兴传染病（如禽流感）对于遏制大流行至关重要。 为此，我们开发了一种简单的置换检验及其改进版本。 模拟研究表明，改进后的置换检验在样本量较小时，其功效与基于渐近理论的传统检验相当甚至更胜一筹。 此外，我们的重抽样方法可以应用于许多传统渐近检验不可用或失效的问题。 我们还发现，如果这种疾病在人群中具有适度的传染性，那么只需少量病例即可获得相当高的统计功效。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Early detection of person-to-person transmission of emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza is crucial for containing pandemics. We developed a simple permutation test and its refined version for this purpose. A simulation study shows that the refined permutation test is as powerful as or outcompetes the conventional test built on asymptotic theory, especially when the sample size is small. In addition, our resampling methods can be applied to a broad range of problems where an asymptotic test is not available or fails. We also found that decent statistical power could be attained with just a small number of cases, if the disease is moderately transmissible between humans.