标题： 数值滑坡灾害建模中的技术、进展、问题和挑战 显示英文标题

标题： Techniques, advances, problems and issues in numerical modelling of landslide hazard

摘要： 滑坡（例如滑坡）是时间和空间上复杂的动态系统，与继承性和当前的准备和触发控制密切相关。目前尚无法在所有情况下评估失效、再活化和快速涌动的条件，并成功模拟其瞬态和多维行为和发展，尽管在分离许多关键变量和基本机制并将其纳入基于物理的滑坡灾害评估模型方面已取得显著进展。因此，本文的目的是回顾对滑坡过程理解的最新进展，并确定未来几年在灾害评估中发展我们的建模能力的一些紧迫挑战。本文重点讨论滑坡运动的特殊性质以及在数学和基于物理的模型中模拟其复杂的时间依赖行为的困难。它依次分析了首次失效（失效前和失效阶段）、再活化以及向快速重力过程的灾难性转变（失效后阶段）的研究前沿。随后，本文讨论了将局部滑坡活动知识转移到区域尺度滑坡灾害预测的途径，并以概述的方式说明地貌调查和支持监测技术如何应用于不同空间和时间尺度上改进基于物理的滑坡模型的理论概念和建模性能。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Slope movements (e.g. landslides) are dynamic systems that are complex in time and space and closely linked to both inherited and current preparatory and triggering controls. It is not yet possible to assess in all cases conditions for failure, reactivation and rapid surges and successfully simulate their transient and multi-dimensional behaviour and development, although considerable progress has been made in isolating many of the key variables and elementary mechanisms and to include them in physically-based models for landslide hazard assessments. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art in the understanding of landslide processes and to identify some pressing challenges for the development of our modelling capabilities in the forthcoming years for hazard assessment. This paper focuses on the special nature of slope movements and the difficulties related to simulating their complex time-dependent behaviour in mathematical, physically-based models. It analyses successively the research frontiers in the recognition of first-time failures (pre-failure and failure stages), reactivation and the catastrophic transition to rapid gravitational processes (post-failure stage). Subsequently, the paper discusses avenues to transfer local knowledge on landslide activity to landslide hazard forecasts on regional scales and ends with an outline how geomorphological investigations and supporting monitoring techniques could be applied to improve the theoretical concepts and the modelling performance of physically-based landslide models at different spatial and temporal scales.