标题： 基于风电机组动态建模的风电场发电概率计算 显示英文标题

标题： Probabilistic computation of wind farm power generation based on wind turbine dynamic modeling

摘要： 本文研究了在缺乏统计数据的情况下预测风电场发电量的问题。 研究基于时间序列风速模型以及包括切出和切入行为的双馈感应发电机（DFIG）风力涡轮机的简单动态模型。 风力涡轮机被建模为具有三种运行模式的随机混合系统。 通过蒙特卡洛模拟获得的数值结果提供了风电场有功功率生成的年度分布。 对于不同数量的风力涡轮机，我们将使用动态模型得到的数值结果与考虑风力涡轮机稳态功率曲线的结果进行了比较。 仿真表明，在分析风电场发电的年度分布时，无需考虑风力涡轮机的动力学特性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including cut-off and cut-in behaviours. The wind turbine is modeled as a stochastic hybrid system with three operation modes. Numerical results, obtained using Monte-Carlo simulations, provide the annual distribution of a wind farm's active power generation. For different numbers of wind turbines, we compare the numerical results obtained using the dynamic model with those obtained considering the wind turbine's steady-state power curve. Simulations show that the wind turbine's dynamics do not need to be considered for analyzing the annual distribution of a wind farm generation.