标题： 全球气候对长期太阳强迫变化的混沌响应 显示英文标题

标题： Chaotic response of global climate to long-term solar forcing variability

摘要： 研究表明，全球气候在从年度到数千年的广泛时间尺度上对太阳强迫变化表现出混沌响应。与线性系统不同，周期性强迫导致周期性响应，而非线性混沌响应可能导致宽带功率谱呈指数衰减，衰减率T_e等于强迫的周期。研究表明，过去2000年北半球温度异常重建时间序列的功率谱具有指数衰减的宽带部分，T_e=11年，即观测到的衰减率T_e等于太阳活动的平均周期。还表明，过去650,000年大气CO_2时间波动的重建的功率谱具有指数衰减的宽带部分，T_e=41,000年，即观测到的衰减率T_e等于倾斜度周期强迫的周期。还讨论了气候可能受到混沌太阳强迫的可能性。这些结果阐明了太阳强迫变化在长期全球气候动力学中的作用（特别是在冰川循环这一未解问题中），并有助于构建适当的全球气候动态模型。 显示英文摘要

摘要： It is shown that global climate exhibits chaotic response to solar forcing variability in a vast range of timescales: from annual to multi-millennium. Unlike linear systems, where periodic forcing leads to periodic response, nonlinear chaotic response to periodic forcing can result in exponentially decaying broad-band power spectrum with decay rate T_e equal to the period of the forcing. It is shown that power spectrum of a reconstructed time series of Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly for the past 2,000 years has an exponentially decaying broad-band part with T_e = 11 yr, i.e. the observed decay rate T_e equals the mean period of the solar activity. It is also shown that power spectrum of a reconstruction of atmospheric CO_2 time fluctuations for the past 650,000 years, has an exponentially decaying broad-band part with T_e = 41,000 years, i.e. the observed decay rate T_e equals the period of the obliquity periodic forcing. A possibility of a chaotic solar forcing of the climate has been also discussed. These results clarify role of solar forcing variability in long-term global climate dynamics (in particular in the unsolved problem of the glaciation cycles) and help in construction of adequate dynamic models of the global climate.