标题： 光变曲线模拟方法在功率密度谱分析中的参数估计和置信区域 显示英文标题

标题： Parameter Estimation and Confidence Regions in the Method of Light Curve Simulations for the Analysis of Power Density Spectra

摘要： 光变曲线模拟方法是一种已被应用于活动星系核（AGN）X射线监测观测的工具，用于表征时间变化的功率密度谱（PDS）和测量相关的断点频率（这些频率似乎是对这些系统中黑洞质量以及吸积状态的重要诊断）。 它依赖于一个拟合观测数据的PDS模型。 确定拟合模型参数的置信区域尤为重要，我们展示了如何在光变曲线模拟的背景下基于估计值分布实施Neyman构造。 我们认为，这种方法相较于早期关于PDS模型拟合报告中使用的方法具有优势，尤其是在置信区域的大小与数据对模型参数值约束的精度之间的对应关系方面。 我们计划将新方法应用于现有的RXTE和XMM对 Seyfert I 星系的观测以及对 Seyfert II 星系 NGC 4945 的 RXTE 观测。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The Method of Light Curve Simulations is a tool that has been applied to X-ray monitoring observations of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) for the characterization of the Power Density Spectrum (PDS) of temporal variability and measurement of associated break frequencies (which appear to be an important diagnostic for the mass of the black hole in these systems as well as their accretion state). It relies on a model for the PDS that is fit to the observed data. The determination of confidence regions on the fitted model parameters is of particular importance, and we show how the Neyman construction based on distributions of estimates may be implemented in the context of light curve simulations. We believe that this procedure offers advantages over the method used in earlier reports on PDS model fits, not least with respect to the correspondence between the size of the confidence region and the precision with which the data constrain the values of the model parameters. We plan to apply the new procedure to existing RXTE and XMM observations of Seyfert I galaxies as well as RXTE observations of the Seyfert II galaxy NGC 4945.