标题： 通过闪烁噪声光谱学识别堪察加半岛的水文地球化学和地质声学数据中的地震前兆 显示英文标题

标题： Identification of earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemical and geoacoustic data for the Kamchatka peninsula by flicker-noise spectroscopy

摘要： 一种现象学系统方法，用于识别同一局部地震活跃区域多种不同类型信号中的潜在前兆，该方法基于这样一个假设：大地震可能在不同时间和空间尺度上由系统重新配置（准备）所 precede。 在闪烁噪声光谱学框架内引入的非平稳性因子，这是一种用于时间序列分析的统计物理方法，被用作检测任意信号中相对较短时间间隔内的定性（前兆）变化的无量纲准则。 研究了堪察加半岛两个钻孔地下水中氯离子浓度变化的非平稳性因子以及同一地震区深井中的地质声发射，在2001年10月8日大地震前后的时间范围内进行了共同分析。 结果显示，对于水文地球化学数据，非平稳性因子尖峰（潜在前兆）出现在地震前70至50天的区间内，而对于地质声学数据，则分别出现在地震前29天和6天。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative (precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary signals. Nonstationarity factors for chlorine-ion concentration variations in the underground water of two boreholes on the Kamchatka peninsula and geacoustic emissions in a deep borehole within the same seismic zone are studied together in the time frame around a large earthquake on October 8, 2001. It is shown that nonstationarity factor spikes (potential precursors) take place in the interval from 70 to 50 days before the earthquake for the hydrogeochemical data and at 29 and 6 days in advance for the geoacoustic data.