标题： 一种双赢的货币政策在加拿大 显示英文标题

标题： A win-win monetary policy in Canada

摘要： 卢卡斯批判揭示了货币政策变化与经济时间序列结构突变之间的权衡问题。 自那时以来，寻找和表征此类突变已成为主要的计量经济学任务。 我们开发了一种类似于CUSUM的积分技术，使用一个实证模型，定量地将通货膨胀率和失业率与加拿大劳动力水平的变化联系起来。 本质上，我们的模型属于菲利普斯曲线模型类，所涉及变量之间的联系是线性的，所有个体和广义模型的系数都是通过实证校准得到的。 为了实现测量和预测时间序列累积曲线之间的最佳最小二乘拟合，使用了累积曲线作为一维边界元（积分）方法的简化版本。 累积曲线之间的距离（在L2度量下）对结构突变非常敏感，因为它累积真实的差异并抑制不相关的噪声和系统误差。 我们之前对加拿大通货膨胀和失业率的模型通过引入结构突变得到了增强，并通过过去和未来的新数据进行了验证。 最令人兴奋的发现是，1991年引入的通货膨胀目标作为新的货币政策导致了结构突变，表现为价格通胀率下降，同时失业率大幅下降。 因此，加拿大的新货币政策是一个双赢的政策。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model quantitatively linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labour force in Canada. Inherently, our model belongs to the class of Phillips curve models, and the link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models obtained by empirical calibration. To achieve the best LSQ fit between measured and predicted time series cumulative curves are used as a simplified version of the 1-D boundary elements (integral) method. The distance between the cumulative curves (in L2 metrics) is very sensitive to structural breaks since it accumulates true differences and suppresses uncorrelated noise and systematic errors. Our previous model of inflation and unemployment in Canada is enhanced by the introduction of structural breaks and is validated by new data in the past and future. The most exiting finding is that the introduction of inflation targeting as a new monetary policy in 1991 resulted in a structural break manifested in a lowered rate of price inflation accompanied by a substantial fall in the rate of unemployment. Therefore, the new monetary policy in Canada is a win-win one.