标题： 复杂系统科学中的挑战 显示英文标题

标题： Challenges in Complex Systems Science

摘要： FuturICT的基础是社会科学、复杂系统科学和ICT。 本文在FuturICT的背景下，详细阐述了复杂系统科学的主要关注点和挑战，特别强调了通向社会科学的复杂系统路线。 这包括复杂系统具有：许多异质的相互作用部分；多个尺度；复杂的转换规律；意外或不可预测的涌现；对初始条件的敏感依赖；路径依赖的动力学；网络化的分层连接；自主代理的相互作用；自组织；非平衡动力学；组合爆炸；适应变化的环境；共同进化的子系统；定义不明确的边界；以及多层级动力学。 在这种情况下，科学被视为从数据中抽象系统动态的过程。 这带来了许多挑战，包括：通过大规模实验、参与式感知和社会计算进行数据收集，管理巨大的分布式动态和异构数据库；从数据到动态模型的转变，超越相关性以获得因果关系，理解简单模型与综合模型之间的关系并适当选择变量，集合建模和数据同化，建立多层次的系统之系统模型；以及制定新的预测、预报和风险方法，特别是在那些能够根据预测反思并改变行为的系统，以及其看似可预测的行为因看似不可预测的稀有或极端事件而受到干扰的系统。 这些挑战是FuturICT议程的一部分。 显示英文摘要

摘要： FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.