标题： 健康研究中的动态建模作为避免统计误用的统计应用开发框架 显示英文标题

标题： Dynamic Modeling in Health Research as a framework for developing statistical applications free of misuse of statistics

摘要： 我们介绍了一种用于开发卫生研究中统计应用的新框架，该框架基于所研究过程的动态建模。 我们提出了卫生研究中的动态建模原则，这些原则与其他研究领域的原则是一致的。 动态模型明确描述了因果关系，这些关系应在统计方法中得到适当考虑，从而避免统计误用和统计谬误。 我们提出了人口健康动态模型，用以描述健康指标随时间的变化，具有状态变量的性质。 动态回归方法被开发为识别该模型的统计方法。 该方法评估每个年龄和日历年状态变量的队列趋势。 通过使用1982年、1987年和1992年在芬兰北卡累利阿收集的调查数据，评估男性体重指数的队列趋势来说明该方法。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We introduce a novel framework for developing statistical applications in health research, based on dynamic modeling of the investigated processes. We formulate the principles of dynamic modeling in health research, which are coherent to those in other fields of research. Dynamic models explicitly describe causal relations which are to be adequately accounted in statistical methods, making them free of misuse of statistics and statistical fallacy. We propose the Dynamic Model of Population Health describing temporal changes in health indicators, having nature of state variables. The Dynamic Regression Method was developed as statistical method for the identification of the model. This method evaluates cohort trends for state variables at each age and calendar year. The method is illustrated by evaluating cohort trends for the Body Mass Index for men, using survey data collected in the years 1982, 1987, 1992, in North Karelia, Finland.