标题： 回复《宇宙射线变化对季风降雨和温度的影响》：太阳-地球研究领域的一个假阳性结果 显示英文标题

标题： Reply to 'Influence of cosmic ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature': a false-positive in the field of solar-terrestrial research

摘要： 大量研究已经发表，声称太阳对地球天气和气候有强烈影响。 其中大部分工作包含已记录的错误和假阳性结果，但仍经常被用来支持全球变暖否认的论点。 本文报告了Badruddin & Aslam（2014）最近的一项研究，以下简称BA14，他们声称印度季风强度极端值与宇宙射线通量之间存在高度显著（$p=1.4\times10^{-5}$）的关系。 他们进一步推测，他们观察到的关系可能适用于整个热带和副热带地区，并具有全球重要性。 然而，他们的统计分析——以及由此得出的结论——是错误的。 具体来说，他们的错误源于一个假设，即他们的数据基础分布是高斯分布。 但正如本研究所示，他们的数据密切遵循一种偏向极端值的遍历混沌分布。 从使用蒙特卡洛抽样方法计算出的概率密度函数，我估计BA14样本的真实显著性为$p=0.91$。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A litany of research has been published claiming strong solar influences on the Earth's weather and climate. Much of this work includes documented errors and false-positives, yet is still frequently used to substantiate arguments of global warming denial. This manuscript reports on a recent study by Badruddin & Aslam (2014), hereafter BA14, which claimed a highly significant ($p=1.4\times10^{-5}$) relationship between extremes in the intensity of the Indian monsoon and the cosmic ray flux. They further speculated that the relationship they observed may apply across the entire tropical and sub-tropical belt, and be of global importance. However, their statistical analysis---and consequently their conclusions---were wrong. Specifically, their error resulted from an assumption that their data's underlying distribution was Gaussian. But, as demonstrated in this work, their data closely follow an ergodic chaotic distribution biased towards extreme values. From a probability density function, calculated using a Monte Carlo sampling approach, I estimate the true significance of the BA14 samples to be $p=0.91$.