标题： 北极海冰的随机动力学 第一部分：加性噪声 显示英文标题

标题： Stochastic dynamics of Arctic sea ice Part I: Additive noise

摘要： 我们分析了在广泛外部热通量下具有恒定加性噪声的随机北极海冰模型的数值解，$\Delta F_0$，这些热通量对应于温室气体强迫。 通过检查随机路径和概率密度函数（PDFs），展示了随机性为确定性稳态解（常年冰状态和季节冰状态）提供的变异性。 主要的随机矩（标准差、均值和偏度）被计算并与其之前由Moon和Wettlaufer（2013）描述的随机扰动理论所确定的结果进行比较。 我们详细研究了在增加的温室气体强迫下，使海冰不稳定的冰-反照率反馈的破坏作用与使海冰稳定的长波辐射损失的稳定作用之间竞争的作用。 特别是，在夏季末的随机路径的变异性显示出一个明显的最大值，这是由于反照率反馈的重要性不断增加及其相关的“记忆效应”从早春到夏末不断积累所致。 这种效应被由于冰面长波能量损失而产生的海冰稳定化所抵消，这种长波损失在冬季增强，从而聚焦随机路径并减少冬季的变异性。 对这些效应进行解释的组织原则是一个具有时间依赖势的广义Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity provides to the deterministic steady state solutions (perennial and seasonal ice states) is illustrated by examining both the stochastic paths and probability density functions (PDFs). The principal stochastic moments (standard deviation, mean and skewness) are calculated and compared with those determined from a stochastic perturbation theory described previously by Moon and Wettlaufer (2013). We examine in detail the competing roles of the destabilizing sea ice-albedo-feedback and the stabilizing long-wave radiative loss contributions to the variability of the ice cover under increased greenhouse-gas forcing. In particular, the variability of the stochastic paths at the end of summer shows a clear maximum, which is due to the combination of the increasing importance of the albedo-feedback and its associated "memory effect" that accumulates from early spring to late summer. This is counterbalanced by the stabilization of the ice cover due to the longwave loss of energy from the ice surface, which is enhanced during winter, thereby focusing the stochastic paths and decreasing the variability in winter. The organizing principle for the interpretation of these effects is a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a time dependent potential.