标题： 宇宙中技术物种普遍性的新经验约束 显示英文标题

标题： A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe

摘要： 本文探讨了技术物种的宇宙频率问题。系外行星研究的最新进展对德雷克方程中的所有天文学术语提供了强有力的限制。利用这些成果，并修改德雷克方程的形式和意图，我们证明可以对可观测宇宙历史上某个地方出现一个或多个额外技术物种的概率设定一个明确的下限。我们发现，只要宜居带行星发展出技术物种的概率大于 ~$10^{-24}$，那么人类就不是唯一进化出技术智慧的物种。这一约束具有重要的科学和哲学意义。 显示英文摘要

摘要： In this paper we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake Equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the Drake equation we show that we can set a firm lower bound on the probability that one or more additional technological species have evolved anywhere and at any time in the history of the observable Universe. We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ~$10^{-24}$, then humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved. This constraint has important scientific and philosophical consequences.