标题： 发达国家的工资变动及其对中国的启示 显示英文标题

标题： The wage transition in developed countries and its implications for China

摘要： “工资过渡”这一表述指的是，在过去二三十年里，所有发达国家的工资增长都趋于平稳。 工资与人均国内生产总值之间出现了越来越大的分歧和脱节。 然而，在中国，工资和人均国内生产总值是同步上升的（至少到目前为止）。 在论文的第一部分，我们提供了比较统计证据，用以衡量工资过渡效应的程度。 在第二部分，我们探讨了这一现象的原因，特别是解释了劳动力从低生产率部门（如农业）向高生产率部门（如制造业）转移是如何推动生产率增长的，尤其是通过它们的协同效应。 尽管农村人口外流只是这些效应之一，但由于其带来的地理迁移，它显然是最明显的；同时也是统计上定义最明确的。 此外，将看到它是非农业部门整体生产率和吸引力的良好指标。 由于该模型能够较好地解释发达国家的观察到的变化，我们将其用于预测未来几十年中国经济的增长率。 我们对实际工资平均年增长率的预测范围在4%到6%之间，具体取决于中国控制其医疗行业发展的程度。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and GDP per capita on the other hand. Yet, in China wages and GDP per capita climbed in sync (at least up to now). In the first part of the paper we present comparative statistical evidence which measures the extent of the wage transition effect. In a second part we consider the reasons of this phenomenon, in particular we explain how the transfers of labor from low productivity sectors (such as agriculture) to high productivity sectors (such as manufacturing) are the driver of productivity growth, particularly through their synergetic effects. Although rural flight represents only one of these effects, it is certainly the most visible because of the geographical relocation that it implies; it is also the most well-defined statistically. Moreover, it will be seen that it is a good indicator of the overall productivity and attractivity of the non-agricultural sector. Because this model accounts fairly well for the observed evolution in industrialized countries, we use it to predict the rate of Chinese economic growth in the coming decades. Our forecast for the average annual growth of real wages ranges from 4% to 6% depending on how well China will control the development of its healthcare industry.