标题： 新兴金融市场中的资产价格泡沫：一种新的统计方法 显示英文标题

标题： The asset price bubbles in emerging financial markets: a new statistical approach

摘要： 泡沫是一个有争议且重要的问题。 许多基于理性预期的方法已被提出用于检测泡沫。 然而，对于一些发展中国家，尤其是中国，资产市场还很年轻，对于许多公司来说，没有股息和基本价值，使得通过现有方法测量泡沫变得困难（如果不是不可能的话）。 因此，我们提出了一种简单但有效的统计方法和三个统计量（即，C、U、V）来捕捉和量化资产价格泡沫，特别是在不成熟的新兴市场中。 为了给出该方法在现实问题中的清晰示例，我们还将该方法应用于重新实证检验一些股票市场的资产价格泡沫。 我们对当前文献的主要贡献如下：首先，这种方法不依赖于基本价值、贴现率和股息，因此适用于缺乏此类充足数据的不成熟市场；其次，这种新方法使我们能够检验泡沫的不同影响（羊群行为、异常波动和综合影响）。 据我们所知，我们的新统计方法是现有文献中唯一一种在新兴市场中量化资产价格泡沫的稳健方法。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The bubble is a controversial and important issue. Many methods which based on the rational expectation have been proposed to detect the bubble. However, for some developing countries, epically China, the asset markets are so young that for many companies, there are no dividends and fundamental value, making it difficult (if not impossible) to measure the bubbles by existing methods. Therefore, we proposed a simple but effective statistical method and three statistics (that is, C, U, V) to capture and quantify asset price bubbles, especially in immature emerging markets. To present a clear example of the application of this method to real world problems, we also applied our method to re-examine empirically the asset price bubble in some stock markets. Our main contributions to current literature are as follows: firstly, this method does not rely on fundamental value, the discount rates and dividends, therefore is applicable to the immature markets without the sufficient data of such kinds, secondly, this new method allows us to examine different influences (herding behavior, abnormal fluctuation and composite influence) of bubble. Our new statistical approach is, to the best of our knowledge, the only robust way in existing literature to to quantify the asset price bubble especially in emerging markets.