标题： 马赛的顺序统计量和随机断裂的棍子 显示英文标题

标题： Order statistics of horse racing and the randomly broken stick

摘要： 我们发现随机分割区间统计量与赛马投注市场中观察到的统计模式和分布之间存在显著的一致性。 我们将隐含获胜赔率的分布、平均真实获胜概率、获胜条件下的隐含赔率以及获胜马匹的平均隐含赔率与“随机断裂棒问题”的相应量进行比较。 我们观察到市场在某种程度上是信息有效的。 从指数随机变量与随机分割统计量之间的映射中，我们得出马匹的真实获胜能力呈指数分布。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the average implied odds of the winning horse with the corresponding quantities from the "randomly broken stick problem". We observe that the market is at least to some degree informationally efficient. From the mapping between exponential random variables and the statistics of the random division we conclude that horses' true winning abilities are exponentially distributed.