标题： 中国道路运输的需求：施加理论规律和灵活函数形式选择 显示英文标题

标题： The demand for road transport in China: imposing theoretical regularity and flexible functional forms selection

摘要： 道路运输部门被发现是主要的排放源，对严重的空气污染和巨大的公共健康损失负有责任。 确定运输需求冲击对宏观经济、空气污染和公共健康后果的一个重要参数是运输需求的弹性。 大多数使用灵活函数形式的已发表研究都忽略了微观经济理论所隐含的理论规则条件。 此外，即使少数研究检查和/或施加了规则条件，其中大多数将曲率单独等同于规则性，从而忽视或最小化了其他规则性的重要性。 然后，结果会出现偏差，实际上可能确实是偏差的。 因此，我们选择了三种最常用的灵活函数形式，即鹿特丹模型、几乎理想的支出系统（AIDS）和二次AIDS（QUAIDS），利用最近的年度支出数据，对中国道路运输需求进行研究，时间跨度为2002年至2014年的13年期间，涉及交通运输部门的三个支出类别：私人交通、本地交通和城际交通。 估计结果显示，AIDS模型是唯一能够提供中国居民道路运输需求理论一致估计的模型。 我们的估计显示，私人交通在交通商品中是一种奢侈品，并且对价格变化相对具有弹性。 实证结果表明，私人交通和本地交通、本地交通和城际交通是总互补品。 并且，私人交通是城际交通的替代品，而城际交通是私人交通的补充品。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Road transport sector is found to be one of the major emitters, and responsible for serious air pollution and huge pubic health losses. One important parameter for determining the consequences of transport demand shocks for the macroeconomy, air pollution and public health is the elasticity of the demand for transport. Most published studies that use flexible functional forms have ignored the theoretical regularity conditions implied by microeconomic theories. Moreover, even a few studies have checked and/or imposed regularity conditions, most of them equate curvature alone with regularity, thus ignoring or minimizing the importance of other regularities. And then, the results appear biased and may in fact be biased. Therefore, we select three of the most widely used flexible functional forms, the Rotterdam model, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), and the quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) to investigate the demand for road transport in China using recent annual expenditure data, over a 13 year period from 2002 to 2014, on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector: private transportation, local transportation and intercity transportation. Estimation shows that the AIDS model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the residents demand for road transport in China. Our estimates show that the private transportation is a luxury among the transportation goods, and is elastic in price changes relatively. The empirical results imply that the private and the local transportation, the local and intercity transportation are gross complements. And, the private transportation is a substitute for the inter-city transportation, while the intercity transportation is a complement of the private transportation.