标题： 广义的莱欣巴赫共同原因系统 显示英文标题

标题： Generalised Reichenbachian Common Cause Systems

摘要： 如果发生了不太可能的巧合，共同原因原则声称必须存在一个共同原因。 这通常被理解为，非因果相关事件之间的正相关性在对某些潜在共同原因的作用进行条件判断时应该消失。 相比之下，该原则的扩展解释则认为，应该引入共同原因来解释两个事件的相关性估计值与其相关性的期望值之间的正偏差。 本文的目的是为该原则的扩展解释提供一个一般的概率模型，捕捉多个共同原因同时作用的系统。 为此，详细阐述了两个不同的模型，并确定了它们存在的必要和充分条件。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The principle of the common cause claims that if an improbable coincidence has occurred, there must exist a common cause. This is generally taken to mean that positive correlations between non-causally related events should disappear when conditioning on the action of some underlying common cause. The extended interpretation of the principle, by contrast, urges that common causes should be called for in order to explain positive deviations between the estimated correlation of two events and the expected value of their correlation. The aim of this paper is to provide the extended reading of the principle with a general probabilistic model, capturing the simultaneous action of a system of multiple common causes. To this end, two distinct models are elaborated, and the necessary and sufficient conditions for their existence are determined.