标题： 全球地表温度趋势和第二次世界大战的影响：参数分析（长版本） 显示英文标题

标题： Global surface temperature trends and the effect of World War II: a parametric analysis (long version)

摘要： 我们拟合了12个独立的表面温度时间序列（纬度区域），其中6个是陆基的，6个是海洋基的，在二次背景上使用了一个高斯分布（以WW2为中心）。四个极地区域不可用。其余8个区域都显示出0.2-0.3摄氏度的上升迹象，尽管其中一个区域由于拟合异常而被排除在最终分析之外。因此，我们发现WW2期间的表面温度上升是数据中一个稳健且统计显著（5.2 sigma）的特征，这要么是一个巧合，要么是由于WW2前后出现的系统误差，或者是人类活动（各种燃烧的增加）对全球气候影响的直接证据。至少在那个时期，温度迅速恢复的事实令人鼓舞。另一方面，背景温度上升的外推预测，如果条件保持不变，未来20年温度将上升0.5摄氏度。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence of a 0.2-0.3 degree C bump, although one zone is dropped from the final analysis because of an aberrant fit. Thus, we find that a surface temperature increase around WW2 is a robust, statistically significant (5.2 sigma) feature of the data, and must either be a coincidence, due to systematic error that came and went around WW2, or direct evidence of the effect of human activity (an increase in combustion of various sorts) on the global climate. The fact that, at least in that era, the temperature recovered quickly, is encouraging. On the other hand, extrapolation of the background temperature rise predicts an increase of 0.5 degree C in the next 20 years if conditions remain the same.