标题： 探索比特币价格的决定因素：贝叶斯结构时间序列的应用 显示英文标题

标题： Exploring the determinants of Bitcoin's price: an application of Bayesian Structural Time Series

摘要： 目前，关于比特币的真实属性尚无共识。 讨论涉及其作为投机性或避险资产的用途，而其他作者则认为，增强的吸引力可能无法完成经济理论所要求的货币功能。 本文使用贝叶斯结构时间序列方法，探讨比特币市场价格与一组内部和外部因素之间的关系。 我旨在通过区分多种吸引力来源，并采用一种提供更灵活分析框架的方法，该方法可以分解时间序列的各个组成部分，应用变量选择，包含先前研究的信息，并在透明且易于处理的环境中动态检查解释变量的行为。 结果表明，比特币价格与中性投资者的情绪、黄金价格以及人民币对美元的汇率呈负相关，而与股票市场指数、美元对欧元的汇率以及不同国家搜索趋势的变化符号呈正相关。 因此，我发现比特币具有混合属性，因为它似乎仍然充当投机性、避险资产和潜在的资本外逃工具。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Currently, there is no consensus on the real properties of Bitcoin. The discussion comprises its use as a speculative or safe haven assets, while other authors argue that the augmented attractiveness could end accomplishing money's functions that economic theory demands. This paper explores the association between Bitcoin's market price and a set of internal and external factors using Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach. I aim to contribute to the discussion by differentiating among several attractiveness sources and employing a method that provides a more flexible analytic framework that decompose each of the components of the time series, apply variable selection, include information on previous studies, and dynamically examine the behavior of the explanatory variables, all in a transparent and tractable setting. The results show that the Bitcoin price is negatively associated with a neutral investor's sentiment, gold's price and Yuan to USD exchange rate, while positively related to stock market index, USD to Euro exchange rate and variated signs among the different countries' search trends. Hence, I find that Bitcoin has mixed properties since still seems to act as a speculative, safe haven and a potential a capital flights instrument.