标题： 模拟雄安新区的未来城市发展：中国的一个新兴大城市 显示英文标题

标题： Simulating the future urban growth in Xiongan New Area: a upcoming big city in China

摘要： 中国于2017年4月1日宣布在河北创建雄安新区。 因此，一个位于北京西南约110公里的新城区将出现。 雄安新区对于转移北京非首都功能具有重要的实际意义和历史意义。 模拟雄安新区的城市动态可以帮助规划者决定在哪里建设新城区，并进一步管理未来城市的发展。 然而，只有少量研究关注雄安新区的未来发展。 此外，以前的模型无法模拟雄安新区的城市动态。 因为这些模型没有原始的高密度城市来学习转换规则。 在本研究中，我们提出了一种C-FLUS模型来解决这些问题。 该框架通过耦合修改后的元胞自动机（CA）实现。 在CA模型中提出了一种基于局部最大值的精心设计的随机种植种子机制，以更好地模拟新城区的发生。 通过分析当前的驱动力，C-FLUS可以检测潜在的启动区域，并在雄安新区的不同情景下模拟城市发展。 我们的研究表明，新城区最有可能出现在雄县的西北部，并将迅速扩展到容城和安新，直到几乎覆盖雄安新区的北部地区。 此外，该方法可以帮助规划者评估雄安新区城市扩张的影响。 显示英文摘要

摘要： China made the announement to create the Xiongan New Area in Hebei in April 1,2017. Thus a new magacity about 110km south west of Beijing will emerge. Xiongan New Area is of great practial significant and historical significant for transferring Beijing's non-capital function. Simulating the urban dynamics in Xiongan New Area can help planners to decide where to build the new urban and further manage the future urban growth. However, only a little research focus on the future urban development in Xiongan New Area. In addition, previous models are unable to simulate the urban dynamics in Xiongan New Area. Because there are no original high density urbna for these models to learn the transition rules.In this study, we proposed a C-FLUS model to solve such problems. This framework was implemented by coupling a modified Cellular automata(CA). An elaborately designed random planted seeds machanism based on local maximums is addressed in the CA model to better simulate the occurrence of the new urban. Through an analysis of the current driving forces, the C-FLUS can detect the potential start zone and simulate the urban development under different scenarios in Xiongan New Area. Our study shows that the new urban is most likely to occur in northwest of Xiongxian, and it will rapidly extend to Rongcheng and Anxin until almost cover the northern part of Xiongan New Area. Moreover, the method can help planners to evaluate the impact of urban expansion in Xiongan New Area.