标题： 量化电动半挂车的经济性案例 显示英文标题

标题： Quantifying the Economic Case for Electric Semi-Trucks

摘要： 对货运交通电气化的兴趣很大，特别是重型卡车，以减少运输部门的温室气体（GHG）排放。 然而，由于需要大容量电池组而产生的额外初始成本，电动半挂车的经济竞争力尚不确定。 在本研究中，我们分析了初始投资与运营成本之间的权衡，以比较续航里程为500英里的电动半挂车车队与柴油卡车车队。 对于基准情况，30%的车队需要更换电池组，价格差异为5万美元，我们发现回收期约为3年。 根据敏感性分析，需要更换电池组的车队比例是一个主要因素。 对于100%更换比例的情况，回收期可能高达5-6年。 我们确定电价是第二个最重要的变量，当电价为0.14美元/千瓦时，回收期可能高达5年。 由于维修费用减少，电动半挂车预计会带来节省，这些节省的幅度也可能在回收期中起到关键作用。 随着自动驾驶车辆的普及，半挂车的年行驶里程可能会大幅增加，这将极大地有利于电动半挂车，使在年行驶里程为12万英里时的回收期降至约2年。 电动半挂车具有不可否认的经济优势，开发循环寿命更长、比能量更高的电池组将进一步加强这一优势。 显示英文摘要

摘要： There has been considerable interest in the electrification of freight transport, particularly heavy-duty trucks to downscale the greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. However, the economic competitiveness of electric semi-trucks is uncertain as there are substantial additional initial costs associated with the large battery packs required. In this work, we analyze the trade-off between the initial investment and the operating cost for realistic usage scenarios to compare a fleet of electric semi-trucks with a range of 500 miles with a fleet of diesel trucks. For the baseline case with 30% of fleet requiring battery pack replacements and a price differential of US\$50,000, we find a payback period of about 3 years. Based on sensitivity analysis, we find that the fraction of the fleet that requires battery pack replacements is a major factor. For the case with 100% replacement fraction, the payback period could be as high as 5-6 years. We identify the price of electricity as the second most important variable, where a price of US$0.14/kWh, the payback period could go up to 5 years. Electric semi-trucks are expected to lead to savings due to reduced repairs and magnitude of these savings could play a crucial role in the payback period as well. With increased penetration of autonomous vehicles, the annual mileage of semi-trucks could substantially increase and this heavily sways in favor of electric semi-trucks, bringing down the payback period to around 2 years at an annual mileage of 120,000 miles. There is an undeniable economic case for electric semi-trucks and developing battery packs with longer cycle life and higher specific energy would make this case even stronger.