标题： 危险率解释中的细微差别 显示英文标题

标题： Subtleties in the interpretation of hazard ratios

摘要： 危险比是随机试验中报告最常用的治疗效果指标之一，但也是许多误解的来源。 这一点在(Hernan, 2010)的评论中得到了明确说明，该评论强调，危险比对比的是在给定时间内存活的治疗和未治疗个体的人群，这些人群通常由于对两组施加的不同压力或强度而无法比较——即使在随机试验中也是如此。 这篇评论影响很大，但也引起了惊讶和困惑。 在本文中，我们旨在通过特别研究从危险比在某一时期后变为1可以了解到关于治疗效果的什么信息，从而更深入地理解危险比和差异的微妙解释。 throughout，我们将专注于随机实验的分析，但我们的结果对观察性研究中危险比的解释有直接的意义。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The hazard ratio is one of the most commonly reported measures of treatment effect in randomised trials, yet the source of much misinterpretation. This point was made clear by (Hernan, 2010) in commentary, which emphasised that the hazard ratio contrasts populations of treated and untreated individuals who survived a given period of time, populations that will typically fail to be comparable - even in a randomised trial - as a result of different pressures or intensities acting on both populations. The commentary has been very influential, but also a source of surprise and confusion. In this note, we aim to provide more insight into the subtle interpretation of hazard ratios and differences, by investigating in particular what can be learned about treatment effect from the hazard ratio becoming 1 after a certain period of time. Throughout, we will focus on the analysis of randomised experiments, but our results have immediate implications for the interpretation of hazard ratios in observational studies.