标题： 通过嵌套泊松回归的非洲国家杯2019预测模型 显示英文标题

标题： Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression

摘要： 本文致力于预测2019年非洲国家杯足球锦标赛。 它基于一个包含参与球队的Elo积分作为协变量的泊松回归模型，并结合了球队特定技能的差异。 所提出的模型允许以概率形式进行预测，以量化每支球队达到比赛某个阶段的机会。 蒙特卡洛模拟用于估计比赛每场比赛的结果，从而模拟整个比赛本身。 该模型拟合自2010年以来参与球队在中立场地的所有足球比赛。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includes the Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions in terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate the whole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010.