标题： 关于探测活动区浮现早期阶段的耀斑生产力的可能性 显示英文标题

标题： On the possibility to probe the flare productivity of an active region on the early stage of emergence

摘要： 长期以来存在的问题是，在活动区（AR）处于早期浮现阶段时预测其未来的耀斑生产力。 本研究的目的是探讨太阳光球磁场的两个参数，这两个参数均在活动区浮现阶段得出，并将其与已成熟的活动区的耀斑生产力进行比较。 这些参数是：（i）浮现阶段磁能谱指数（谱斜率），以及（ii）磁通浮现速率。 对243个浮现的活动区分析表明，磁能指数在一天内从典型的宁静区值增加到成熟的活动区值，而浮现过程持续数天；通常，在增加之后，能指数的值会在某个平均值附近波动，波动幅度比浮现开始时能指数的增长小几倍。 对于34个耀斑生产性活动区的子集，我们发现浮现阶段的能谱指数和整个活动区在盘面上存在期间的耀斑指数之间没有相关性。 同时，磁通浮现速率与耀斑指数有很好的相关性（皮尔逊相关系数为0.74）。 我们得出结论，高磁通浮现速率是活动区在未来产生强耀斑的必要条件，因此，磁通浮现速率可以用来探测活动区未来的耀斑生产力。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A long-standing problem is to predict the future flare productivity of an active region (AR) when it is on the stage of early emergence. The aim of this study is to probe two parameters of the photospheric magnetic field, both derived during the emergence phase of an AR, and to compare them with the flare productivity of the well-developed AR. The parameters are: (i) the index of the magnetic power spectrum (the slope of the spectrum) on the stage of emergence, and (ii) the flux emergence rate. Analysis of 243 emerging ARs showed that the magnetic power index increases from values typical for quiet-Sun regions to the values typical for mature ARs within a day while the emergence proceeds for several days; frequently, after the increase, the value of the power index undulates around some mean value with fluctuations being several time less than the growth of the power index during the emergence onset. For a subset of 34 flare-productive ARs we found no correlation between the power spectrum index at the stage of emergence and flare index derived from the entire interval of the AR's presence on the disc. At the same time, the flux emergence rate correlates well with the flare index (the Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0.74). We conclude that high flux emergence rate is a necessary condition for an AR to produce strong flares in the future, and so, the flux emergence rate can be used to probe the future flare productivity of the AR.