标题： 对意大利各地区 COVID-19 大流行控制的限制措施对再生数$R_t$的影响研究 显示英文标题

标题： Study on the effects of the restrictive measures for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reproduction number $R_t$ in Italian regions

摘要： 自2020年11月6日$^{\mathrm{th}}$起，意大利各地区根据四个级别进行分类，对应特定的风险情景，并为此制定了具体的限制措施。 通过分析再生数$R_t$的时间演变，我们估计不同限制措施对$R_t$的影响，并量化病毒变异的扩散和疫苗接种活动开始对$R_t$趋势的综合影响。 我们还计算了实施限制措施与产生效果之间的时间延迟。 讨论了三种不同的模型来描述限制措施的影响，并使用两种不同的算法计算$R_t$的结果进行了交叉验证。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Since November 6$^{\mathrm{th}}$, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of the reproduction number $R_t$, we estimate how much different restrictive measures affect $R_t$, and we quantify the combined effect of the diffusion of virus variants and the beginning of the vaccination campaign upon the $R_t$ trend. We also compute the time delay between implementation of restrictive measures and the resulting effects. Three different models to describe the effects of restrictive measures are discussed and the results are cross-checked with two different algorithms for the computation of $R_t$.