标题： 时间依赖性传染性对流行病动力学的影响 显示英文标题

标题： The effect of time-dependent infectiousness on epidemic dynamics

摘要： 与流行病模型中常见的假设相反，即个体之间的感染率是恒定的，在现实中，个体的病毒载量决定了他们的传染性。 我们比较了包含时间依赖传染性的模型与标准SIR模型在完全混合和类别混合人群中的平均和个体基本再生数、流行病动力学以及干预策略。 我们发现，基本再生数仅取决于总传染暴露量和混合矩阵的最大特征值，并且这两个效应彼此独立。 我们还发现，当我们将我们的时变均场模型与具有相同速率的SIR模型进行比较时，流行病峰值提前且更加明显，修改感染率函数对流行病的时间动态有显著影响。 最后，我们探讨了社会和药物干预对我们理论框架的影响。 显示英文摘要

摘要： In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive numbers, epidemic dynamics, and intervention strategies for a model incorporating time-dependent infectiousness and a standard SIR model for both fully-mixed and category-mixed populations. We find that the reproductive number only depends on the total infectious exposure and the largest eigenvalue of the mixing matrix and that these two effects are independent of each other. We also find that when we compare our time-dependent mean-field model to the SIR model with identical rates, the epidemic peak is advanced and more pronounced and modifying the infection rate function has a strong effect on the time dynamics of the epidemic. Lastly, we explore the effect of social and pharmaceutical interventions on our theoretical framework.