标题： 传染病爆发的随机性及其对最优干预措施的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Stochasticity of infectious outbreaks and consequences for optimal interventions

摘要： 全球应对大流行的策略，如社交距离和防护措施，旨在降低个体之间的总体传播率。 尽管采取了这些措施，关键机构，包括医院、学校和食品生产工厂，仍然是局部爆发的焦点。 在此，我们开发了一个用于此类局部社区中随机爆发动态的模型。 我们推导了爆发被控制的概率的解析表达式，这与引发确定性增长流行病的概率相辅相成。 该概率取决于社区内部接触网络的统计特性以及初始条件，特别是患者零的接触度。 基于此模型，我们建议通过按接触网络中的度数比例对个体进行检测的监测协议。 我们将基于接触的协议的有效性表征为流行病学和接触网络参数的函数，并通过数值模拟表明，此类协议优于随机检测。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals, schools, and food producing plants, remain focal points of local outbreaks. Here we develop a model for the stochastic outbreak dynamics in such local communities. We derive analytical expressions for the probability of containment of the outbreak, which is complementary to the probability of seeding a deterministically growing epidemic. This probability depends on the statistics of the intra-community contact network and the initial conditions, in particular, on the contact degree of patient zero. Based on this model, we suggest surveillance protocols by which individuals are tested proportionally to their degree in the contact network. We characterize the efficacy of contact-based protocols as a function of the epidemiological and the contact network parameters, and show numerically that such protocols outperform random testing.