标题： 氢和合成能源载体在德国的未来作用及经济效益：长期能源情景的系统综述 显示英文标题

标题： Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios

摘要： 考虑到能源转型目标来确定德国能源系统的发展是系列研究的主题。 由于它们的假设和结果在政治能源辩论中对于理解氢气和合成能源载体的作用起着重要作用，因此需要更好的讨论。 本文提供了对已发表的德国能源转型路径的比较评估，以评估氢气和合成能源载体的作用和优势。 选择了十二项能源研究，并评估了2030年和2050年的37种情景。 尽管存在差异，这两种能源载体将在未来发挥重要作用。 虽然预计到2030年它们的部署才刚刚开始，德国的平均需求为91太瓦时/年（占最终能源需求的4%），但到2050年它们将成为必不可少的部分，平均需求为480太瓦时/年（占最终能源需求的24%）。 脱碳目标与最终能源需求中基于氢的能源载体份额之间存在适度的正相关性（0.53），这突显了其对实现气候目标的相关性。 此外，预计到2030年基于氢的能源载体将带来约50亿欧元/年的价值创造效应。 到2050年，这些效应将增加到近160亿欧元/年。 预计氢气将主要在国内生产，而合成燃料预计将主要进口。 尽管有诸多优势，但设施建设的成本很高，在讨论中不应忽视这些成本。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Determining the development of Germany's energy system by taking the energy transition objectives into account is the subject of a series of studies. Since their assumptions and results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides a comparative assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers. Twelve energy studies were selected and 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the two carriers will play an important future role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24% of the final energy demand). A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 5 bn EUR/a in 2030 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. By 2050, these effects will increase to almost 16 bn EUR/a. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Despite of all the advantages, the construction of the facilities is associated with high costs which should be not neglected in the discussion.