标题： 估计叙利亚内战的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Estimating the Effects of Syrian Civil War

摘要： 我们考察了叙利亚内战对经济增长、人类发展和制度质量的影响。 在合成控制方法的基础上，我们估计了假设没有武装冲突情况下的缺失反事实情景，该冲突导致了现代历史上前所未有的人道主义危机和人口流离失所。 通过将叙利亚的增长和发展轨迹与1996-2021年期间66个没有内部武装冲突的国家的捐赠池特征相匹配，我们估计了一系列归因于内战的增长和发展差距。 叙利亚内战似乎对经济增长轨迹产生了暂时的负面影响，并在新冠疫情爆发前几乎消失。 相比之下，内战导致了人类发展前所未有的损失，婴儿死亡率上升，制度质量急剧恶化。 直到今天，战争的每一年都导致了5700例五岁以下儿童的额外死亡，并对寿命产生了永久性的负面影响。 内战导致了制度质量前所未有的永久性恶化，表现为法治普遍削弱以及对政府效能、公民自由和腐败广泛加剧的有害影响。 估计的影响经受住了各种安慰剂检验。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We examine the effect of civil war in Syria on economic growth, human development and institutional quality. Building on the synthetic control method, we estimate the missing counterfactual scenario in the hypothetical absence of the armed conflict that led to unprecedented humanitarian crisis and population displacement in modern history. By matching Syrian growth and development trajectories with the characteristics of the donor pool of 66 countries with no armed internal conflict in the period 1996-2021, we estimate a series of growth and development gaps attributed to civil war. Syrian civil war appears to have had a temporary negative effect on the trajectory of economic growth that almost disappeared before the onset of COVID19 pandemic. By contrast, the civil war led to unprecedented losses in human development, rising infant mortality and rampantly deteriorating institutional quality. Down to the present day, each year of the conflict led to 5,700 additional under-five child deaths with permanently derailed negative effect on longevity. The civil war led to unprecedent and permanent deterioration in institutional quality indicated by pervasive weakening of the rule of law and deleterious impacts on government effectiveness, civil liberties and widespread escalation of corruption. The estimated effects survive a battery of placebo checks.