标题： 股票市场表现的谱分析方法 显示英文标题

标题： A spectral approach to stock market performance

摘要： 我们提出了股票市场表现的估计和可预测性问题。选取了三个案例：美国、日本和德国，使用的是经合组织数据中的股票实现投资价值、价格加上股息支付额的月度指数。 一旦经过消胀和去趋势处理后，应用谐波分析。这些序列既包括有外生冲击证据的时期也包括没有外生冲击证据的时期。这些序列是波动的，随机漫步假设被合理地证伪。 估计结果显示存在相关的重要隐藏周期性，这些周期性近似于股票价值的变动。 从2008年7月开始，成功分析了随后的股价下跌是否可以预测。同样，数据是不规则且分散的，但前五个谐波的相关总和预示了随后的股市价值下跌。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We pose the estimation and predictability of stock market performance. Three cases are taken: US, Japan, Germany, the monthly index of the value of realized investment in stocks, prices plus the value of dividend payments (OECD data). Once deflated and trend removed, harmonic analysis is applied. The series are taken with and without the periods with evidence of exogenous shocks. The series are erratic and the random walk hypothesis is reasonably falsified. The estimation reveals relevant hidden periodicities, which approximate stock value movements. From July 2008 onwards, it is successfully analyzed whether the subsequent fall in share value would have been predictable. Again, the data are irregular and scattered, but the sum of the first five harmonics in relevance anticipates the fall in stock market values that followed.