标题： 基于众包开放数据的移动电信基础设施对气候危害的全球脆弱性评估 显示英文标题

标题： Global Vulnerability Assessment of Mobile Telecommunications Infrastructure to Climate Hazards using Crowdsourced Open Data

摘要： 地球气候的持续变化正在导致与气候相关的灾害频率和严重程度增加，例如沿海洪水、河流洪水和热带气旋。 目前迫切需要量化这些事件对基础设施和用户的影响，特别是对于以前被忽视的基础设施领域，如电信，尤其是在我们越来越依赖数字技术的情况下。 在本分析中进行了一项全球评估，使用相当于760万2G、3G、4G和5G资产的开放众包数据，量化了易受气候灾害影响的移动基站数量。 在高排放情景（RCP8.5）下，年概率为0.01%的事件中，受影响的基站数量估计为226万个，相当于直接损失10.1亿美元（分别比历史基线增加了14%和44%）。 同样，在RCP8.5情景下，年概率为0.01%的沿海洪水事件，可能受影响的基站数量为10.99万个，相当于直接损失26.9亿美元（分别比基线增加了70%和78%）。 研究结果表明，风险分析师需要在未来的关键国家基础设施评估中包括移动通信（以及更广泛的电信）领域。 事实上，本文为文献贡献了一种经过验证的评估方法，可用于未来研究，以评估这一关键基础设施领域。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The ongoing change in Earth`s climate is causing an increase in the frequency and severity of climate-related hazards, for example, from coastal flooding, riverine flooding, and tropical cyclones. There is currently an urgent need to quantify the potential impacts of these events on infrastructure and users, especially for hitherto neglected infrastructure sectors, such as telecommunications, particularly given our increasing dependence on digital technologies. In this analysis a global assessment is undertaken, quantifying the number of mobile cells vulnerable to climate hazards using open crowdsourced data equating to 7.6 million 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G assets. For a 0.01% annual probability event under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the number of affected cells is estimated at 2.26 million for tropical cyclones, equating to USD 1.01 billion in direct damage (an increase against the historical baseline of 14% and 44%, respectively). Equally, for coastal flooding the number of potentially affected cells for an event with a 0.01% annual probability under RCP8.5 is 109.9 thousand, equating to direct damage costs of USD 2.69 billion (an increase against the baseline of 70% and 78%, respectively). The findings demonstrate the need for risk analysts to include mobile communications (and telecommunications more broadly) in future critical national infrastructure assessments. Indeed, this paper contributes a proven assessment methodology to the literature for use in future research for assessing this critical infrastructure sector.